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Arlington is in the process of update the town’s 2016 Housing Production Plan, and the Housing Plan Implementation Committee and Planning Department have put together a “meeting in a box” as part of their outreach efforts. The idea is to package a set of discussion questions and supplementary materials, so that groups can talk through the questions on their own and provide written feedback. Meeting in a box materials are available from the town website.
I tried this with a group of friends. Here are the questions, and points that came up during the group discussion. Notes that these are discussion notes (transcribed from large sheets of easel paper), and don’t represent agreement or concensus.
Question 1: Housing Needs. Arlington residents have expressed concerns about the housing needs of older adults. Other needs identified so far are the cost and condition of rental housing, the impact of Arlington’s housing sale prices on the ability of young families to find a home in Arlington they can afford, and the impact of limited housing choices on racial and ethnic diversity in Arlington. What housing needs are you most concerned about?
- Address historical racial injustice and land use policies.
- Diversity and types of housing. Availability and affordability.
- Lack of diversity of housing types.
- Every house sold is a total bidding war.
- Better “stage of life housing” matches.
- Having an adequate range of options for lots of different needs.
- Impact on the regional housing shortage.
- Arlington is served by the T and buses; we have a responsibility to provide housing because we have access to transit.
- I was lucky to get in a few years ago, before prices started going crazy.
- We spend too much time romanticizing our old crumbling houses with lead paint.
- Arlington’s zoning encourages mansionization. As a result, we get one big expensive house rather than two smaller more affordable ones.
- What’s happening in Arlington today is the same thing that happened to Lexington 20 years ago — it became a community for affluent professionals only
- There’s too much emphasis on keeping things the way they were 20, 30, 40, or 50 years ago.
- Housing can be about preserving economic diversity, but we need a variety of housing types to do that.
- I’d be happy to see more people in town.
- Getting an affordable rental unit here is like winning the lottery.
- The suburbs have shut down housing production. That’s one of the things causing gentrification in Boston.
- Arlington’s housing mainly caters towards families with children. For our town’s financial health, we also need housing for families without children.
- With climate change, our practice of low-density, car-oriented, land-intensive sprawl is no longer sustainable. Density can be an important tool for addressing climate change, and we should use it to that effect.
Question 2: Challenges to Meeting Affordable Housing Needs. Participants in interviews conducted for the Housing Plan and at the June 9 Housing Plan Meeting were asked about challenges or obstacles to providing affordable housing in Arlington. Several challenges were identified, such as difficulty finding locations that for new housing development or redevelopment, how the Town’s Housing Trust Fund and CPA funds should be used to meet housing needs, and general tensions and disagreement about growth in Arlington that make it hard for people to agree. What challenges do you think are the biggest impediments to meeting housing needs in Arlington?
- There’s not a stable funding source for Arlington’s Affordable Housing Trust Fund.
- Housing is really expensive here.
- There are not enough affordable housing developers that are willing to navigate Arlington’s anti-development stance. They’ll build in other communities, where there’s less resistance.
- There’s a lack of political will to add affordable housing, or housing in general.
- There’s not enough land where multifamily housing can be built.
- There’s unreasonable resistance to new multi-family buildings, like apartments.
- The housing production plan identifies a number of opportunity zones. But they’re small, and there’s not enough land to create much of an opportunity.
- Our housing authority is not very aggressive about utilizing the land they have. Their leadership doesn’t seem to want to do it.
- The belief that “Arlington is full”. In reality, we’ve just chosen to be (by virtue of current zoning).
Question 3: Opportunities for Reaching Agreement. What steps would help to bring Arlington residents together about providing affordable housing? How can the Town balance concerns about housing needs and natural resources protection? Or concerns about housing need and preserving Arlington’s built environment? What do you think most could people agree on?
- Concern about exurban sprawl.
- Concern about gentrification.
- Our parking requirements make housing more expensive than it needs to be.
- We can agree on worries. I’m skeptical that we’ll be able to agree on solutions.
- There’s an unwillingness to accept incremental progress.
- Many incremental changes feel too big.
- If people feel threatened by affordable housing, they’ll oppose it.
- Shared values around the importance of having residents of a variety of economic situations.
- Do people really care about environmental sustainability when they move into a house? Not sure how you get people to sign on.
- There’s a conflict between anti-density and sustainability.
- If you don’t build here, there will be evergreen builds outside of 495.
- Teachers who teach here should be able to afford to live here.
- We need business growth and tax base growth.
- New housing should feel like it blends into the surrounding neighborhood.
- Our neighborhoods are changing. The fact that we’re not doing proactive things doesn’t prevent them from changing.
As you can see, our group had a range of opinions and even a few points of disagreement – for example, “there’s an unwillingness to accept incremental progress” vs “many incremental changes feel too big”. I feel like that pair is a good illustration of how different people have different comfort zones; a situation that can be challenging to navigate. Metro Boston is growing, as are metropolitan areas all across the country. Our new arrivals will need places to live, and I’d hope to see Arlington be proactive in addressing that need.
While you’ve heard a lot about the MBTA Communities Plan, you may be surprised to learn that your neighbors might not know about it. If they have heard the name, they might think it has to do with MBTA buses. Or they might have heard rumors giving an incorrect idea of what the plan is.
You may be tempted to tell them to read the full report by the MBTA Communities Plan Working Group [PDF], but most people don’t have the time to study a 51-page report, even if it’s the most gripping read since Gone Girl. Many of them are so busy they may only have ten seconds to spare.
But you’re in luck, because we’ve written up quick talking points you can use if you’re talking to someone for ten seconds, a minute, or two minutes. If they bring up something they’ve heard that seems incorrect, we also have responses so you can clear up that misinformation.
Ten second version:
The MBTA Communities law says that communities served by the MBTA need to zone areas for multi-family housing. We need more capacity than the state requires in order to:
- Provide more housing
- Support local businesses
- Be equitable across town
One minute version:
The MBTA Communities law says that communities served by the MBTA like Arlington need to zone some areas for multi-family housing. We need more capacity than the state requires to:
- Provide more housing
- Support local businesses
- Be equitable across town
Right now, developers can easily build a McMansion. But they have to go through a long and pricey permitting process to build multi-family housing that’s the exact same size. This plan will make it just as easy to build apartment buildings of the same size as that McMansion. And if it’s at least 6 units it will include an affordable unit!
Two minute pitch:
The MBTA Communities Law is a state law. It requires communities with MBTA service to zone some areas for multi-family housing. Each community is required to reach a specific capacity of multi-family housing. Arlington’s current plan goes beyond what the state requires. We need to go above and beyond because:
- This plan is the only one that gives Arlingtonians what they initially requested. They asked that the zoning for multi-family housing would be:
- distributed across town
- near public transit
- walking distance from shops and businesses
- Currently, a developer can build a 5,000 square foot McMansion in these areas, but not a building with five, less expensive, 1,000 square foot units. This plan would allow for both.
- Arlington only requires affordable units in buildings of 6 units or greater. Allowing larger buildings could result in more affordable units for people to live in.
Common Concerns
Use these ONLY if the person brings up these concerns. Listen carefully to what they have to say first, and stick to the top three points.
“Why are we jamming this legislation through? Why don’t we take more time to explore it?”
While it may seem that the process is moving quickly, in fact planning and discussions have been going on for almost a year. The topic was first introduced in a town-wide meeting on November 17, 2022. The Working Group first met in February and has convened 19 times since then. All the Working Group’s meetings were open to the public and attracted a number of attendees. There were also three larger public forums, several surveys, and other outreach outlined on page 5 of the working group’s report. In any case, in order to comply with the law, all communities must submit final plans by the end of 2024. By acting now we get to take advantage of pilot programs and other state benefits.
“The plan says we have to build 20,000 homes!”
- According to the current plan, an area that currently has about 2100 homes would be re-zoned to permit a maximum of just over 7,000 homes. That translates to a maximum of 5,000 additional apartments and condos.
- This theoretical maximum is based on every single unit being 1,000 square feet or less, every single lot being built to the maximum and absolutely no parking. Builders are not likely to build only 1000 square foot units without parking, because there is demand for a variety of units.
- Building anywhere close to the maximum can only happen if every single current property owner in the zone sells their parcels to developers. Based on Arlington’s historical property sales, we are unlikely to get anywhere near that number. For example, with a condo duplex, they would need to get both condo owners to sell. (Perhaps you can use your own block as an example.)
“Why can’t we just do the bare minimum?”
When the group looked at a “bare minimum” plan (minimum units on maximum acres), they found that in most areas it would not yield additional housing. In some places, it would permit about 2,100 homes in an area that has over 3,000 homes now – in other words, it would allow fewer homes than already exist.
“But we already have multi-unit buildings on Mass Ave!”
Yes, but the majority were built before 1975. Current zoning and the permitting process make it very difficult for similar buildings to be built today.
“But Arlington can’t handle any more people!”
- Arlington’s population is smaller than it used to be. In 1970, we had over 7,000 more people than we have now. And the town’s infrastructure was built to handle 7,000 more people, as were our amenities.
- We aren’t just building this for new people. We’re building it so that empty nesters who are downsizing, kids who are moving into their own apartments and other members of our community can stay and have housing that suits their needs.
- Businesses, churches and libraries all need a population at a certain level in order to thrive.
“These tall buildings will ruin our neighborhoods and block our light.”
- The plan allows for four floors throughout for an important reason. It’s because buildings that are four stories or higher have to meet Americans with Disabilities Act requirements. That means that it will be built so people in wheelchairs or who use a walker can live there. Right now we have very little housing suitable for people with limited mobility, so people who develop mobility issues have to leave Arlington.
- Under certain specific circumstances in narrow areas of the plan, it is possible to go up to six floors on Mass Ave only. These buildings have significant bump backs on the fifth and sixth floor. We already have several buildings of this height along Mass Ave.
- Elsewhere, this would allow four floors in areas where currently homes are two floors plus a lived-in attic or three floors. This is not a huge change, it is an incremental change.
“But what about our schools? This will overload them!”
- By spreading out the housing, we spread out the new students among all the elementary schools and allow the school department to adjust the school zoning if they need to.
- Elementary school population has declined by 5% in the past three years and according to projections will decline further. If we don’t add population then the number of elementary students will continue to drop off.
- Lexington’s School Enrollment Working Group found that new units do not directly correlate with enrollment growth; smaller units are far less likely to incur growth than larger; spreading out the growth over the town would be easier to absorb.
If you encounter anything you think we should add, please contact us via info@equitable-arlington.org.
Contributors: Charles Blandy, Patrick Hanlon, Dori Mazor, Jennifer Susse, Sanjay Newton, Eugene Benson, Steve Revilak, James Fleming, Barbara Thornton, Nicole Gustas and other members
I live on Sunnyside Avenue in Arlington, Massachusetts. The neighborhood was built as two subdivisions in 1948, with 42 duplexes (84 homes total). These were starter homes with 792 square feet of finished space plus a basement with a garage. I affectionately refer to them as excellent specimens of mid-century slap-up. They were constructed in the mid 20th century, and the builder just kind of slapped them up.
Here’s one of the original newspaper ads for these homes.
It’s fun to read the ad copy. The homes are “within walking distance of schools, transportation (MTA) and shopping centers” (a selling point that endures to this day); the lots are “large to provide for individual landscaping” (they’re 3,000 square feet give or take, which is unbuildably small by today’s zoning laws); and the homes have “full-sized dining rooms”, “spacious streamlined kitchens”, and “two large sunny bedrooms” (so much largeness for 792 square feet). I guess this was a time when good salesmanship took precedence over truth in advertising. It was a different time.
I have to admit, they were a pretty good deal. $8750 in 1948 is equivalent to around $95,000 in 2020 dollars; these homes, with the original floor plan, currently sell for around half a million dollars.
However, the part of the ad that most caught my attention was “All Mortgages FHA 25 years”. FHA refers to the Federal Housing Administration, who were the primary mortgage underwriters during the middle of the 20th century. They’re also an example of how the United States used housing policy as a tool for segregation; the FHA was in the business of insuring mortgages for white families in white neighborhoods. The Fair Housing Center of Greater Boston has a short summary of FHA practices. There’s also discussion of the FHA in Segregated by Design.
Which is to say, my nice little neighborhood in East Arlington was likely designed, built, and sold as a segregated development for whites.
Arlington’s biggest period of residential construction was in the 1920’s when we were building an average of 500 homes/year. But there was still a good deal of single- and two-family construction that took place from the 1930’s to the 1960’s — a bit over 5,000 homes. Since the FHA was the primary mortgage underwriter during that period, I think it’s safe to say that my neighborhood was probably not the only for-whites-only neighborhood in town.
I will end with two questions. How do we feel about this bit of history, and what (if anything) should we do about it?
A portion of Envision Arlington’s town day booth was designed to spark a community conversation about housing. Envision set up a display with six poster boards, each representing a housing-related topic. Participants were given three dots and asked to place them on the topics they felt were most important. There were also pens and post-it notes on hand to capture additional comments. This post is a summary of the results. You could think of it as a straw-poll or temperature check on the opinions of town day attendees.
Social Justice Issues
Aiming for a diverse population by income and race; and being vigilant about identifying and neutralizing barriers to this goal.
197 dots, plus a post-it note that reads “Increasing housing while preserving open space” (with three dots).
Lifestyle Options
Providing for different lifestyles: empty nesters, single millenials, young parents, families, walkable neighborhoods.
149 dots and four post-it notes:
- No more new 5-story buildings with no setbacks. Ugly. (3 dots)
- Why must we maintain our high carbon footprint with single family homes and cars?
- I want to live in a wofati (eco building) (Woodland Oehler Freak-Cheap Annualized Thermal Intertia). Not so legal, one day the norm. Thank you Arlington.
- Connect to transit. Less single family housing with dedicated parking.
Housing Affordability
Affordable housing from subsidies, from construction of smaller units, or from building more housing to reduce the bidding price on current Arlington homes.
308 dots, with 10 post-it notes
- We don’t need more housing. People need to be able to afford to stay in their homes.
- Get Arlington out from the clutches of real estate lobby. (1 dot)
- Wrong categories. Includes affordable housing and development which displaces low and moderate income housing
- Restrictions on teardowns of small homes
- Keep older apartment buildings. They are cheap and affordable.
- Rent control and oversight. “I can only afford to stay because I live in a place that is not secure and in disrepair.”
- Rent control. Please reinstate so that rent is affordable.
- “Affordable” subsidized housing invades your privacy. Every year need all bank stubs, 401(k), like a criminal.
- Build more housing. Build more duplexes, triplexes, etc. Upzone neighborhoods. More transit corridors. Renew calls for a red line stop. Build up the downtown to encourage more density and housing in the same buildings as businesses. More housing + transit = a better society.
- Protect neighborhoods
This was clearly the topic that drew the most response. Arlington housing is expensive.
Maximizing Flexibility of Home Space
Providing for aging parents or childcare providers with a place in your home or getting help paying the mortgage by having a rentable space.
81 dots, and three post-it notes:
- Change zoning to allow accessory dwelling apartments (aka ADUs, granny flats, in-law apartments) (1 dot)
- Want nearby widowed mom to live in own house.
- Accessible rentals, not up 3 flights of stairs.
Doing more with Existing Resources
Examining current Arlington Housing Authority, Housing Corporation of Arlington, and aging apartment buildings for addressing new housing needs.
143 dots, and five post-it notes:
- Fix transportation infrastructure. Peope can live farther out and still get to work. (4 dots)
- Extend red line to Arlington center and heights. (7 dots)
- None of the above. Keep taxes low. (1 dot)
- Accessible for aging residents. Age in place.
- Do something about empty store fronts.
Setting a ten-year goal for new housing
Determining what Arlington’s housing goals should be, and setting about following through on the necessary zoning and incentives to get what we want.
119 dots, and three sticky notes:
- Why is America low-density? Why is this country slave to the auto? More housing near transit!
- Who is “we”?
- There is too much housing density now. Need business area to attract business.
Observations
As noted earlier, the cost of housing seemed to be the main issue of concern. This is understandable: housing prices in Arlington (and the region in general) have been on an escalator ride up since about 2000 or so. That’s led to our current high cost of housing, and also to a form of gradual gentrification. When housing is more expensive than it was last year, a new resident in town has to make more money (or be willing to spend more on housing) than last year’s new resident.
I see at least two broad responses to this: one is to keep the status quo, perhaps returning to the inexpensive housing of decades past. The other is for more multi-family housing, and more transit-oriented development. It will be interesting to see how these dynamics play out in the future.
There’s also recognition of the importance of older “naturally affordable” apartment buildings. Arlington was very pro-growth in the 1950s and 1960s; that’s fortunate, because it allowed these apartments to be built in the first place. On the downside, we haven’t done a good job of allowing new construction into the pipeline during recent decades. Buildings depreciate, so a new building is worth more than one that’s ten years old, which is worth more than one that’s twenty years old, and so on. At some point, the old apartments are likely to be refurbished/upgraded, and they’ll become more expensive as a result.
This is only the beginning of the conversation, but at least we’re getting it going.
Data in a Mass Housing Partnership report shows how far behind the Boston metropolitan area has fallen in meeting the housing needs of its citizens. There are four primary categories for measuring the inadequacies: 1. Availability, 2. Affordability, 3. L0cation and Mobility and 4. Equitability. See the full report for more data and examples. Two slides are shown below.
It’s January 2023, and as we do every year, folks in Arlington are taking out nomination papers, gathering signatures, and strategizing on how to campaign for the town election on Saturday April 1st. The town election is where we choose members of Arlington’s governing institutions, including the Select Board (Arlington’s executive branch), the School Committee, and — most relevantly for this post — Town Meeting.
If you’re new to New England, Town Meeting is an institution you may not have heard of, but it’s basically the town’s Legislative Branch. Town Meeting consists of 12 members from each of 21 Precincts, for 252 members total. Members serve three-year terms, with one-third of the seats up for election in any year, so that each precinct elects four representatives per year (perhaps with an extra seat or two, as needed to fill vacancies). For a deeper dive, Envision Arlington’s ABC’s of Arlington Government gives a great overview of Arlington’s government structure.
As our legislative branch, town meeting’s powers and responsibilities include:
- Passing the Town’s Operating Budget, which details planned expenses for the next year.
- Approving the town’s Capital Budget, which includes vehicle and equipment purchases, playgrounds, and town facilities.
- Bylaw changes. Town meeting is the only body that can amend the towns bylaws, including ones that affect housing and commercial development.
Town Meeting is an excellent opportunity to serve your community, and to learn about how Arlington and its municipal government works. Any registered voter is eligible to run. If this sounds like an interesting prospect, I’d encourage you to run as a candidate. Here’s what you’ll need to do:
- Have a look at the town’s Information for new and Prospective Town Meeting Members.
- Contact the Town Clerk’s office to get a set of nomination papers. You’ll need to do this by 5:00 PM February 8th, 2023 at the latest.
- Gather signatures. You’ll need signatures from at least ten registered voters in your precinct to get on the ballot (it’s always good to get a few extra signatures, to be safe).
- Return your signed nomination papers to the Clerk’s office by February 10, 2023 at noon.
- Campaign! Get a map and voter list for your precinct, knock on doors, and introduce yourself. (Having a flier to distribute is also helpful.)
- Vote on Saturday April 1st, and wait for the results.
Town Meeting traditionally meets every Monday and Wednesday, from 8:00 — 11:00 pm, starting on the 4th Monday in April (which is April 24th this year), and lasting until the year’s business is concluded (typically a few weeks).
If you’d like to connect with an experienced Town Meeting Member about the logistics of campaigning, or the reality of serving at Town Meeting, please email info(AT)equitable-arlington.org and I’d be happy to make an introduction.
During the past few years, Town Meeting was our pathway to legalizing accessory dwelling units, reducing minimum parking requirements, and loosening restrictions on mixed-use development in Arlington’s business districts. Aside from being a rewarding experience, it’s a way to make a difference!
Like numerous metro areas in the United States, Greater Boston has both a shortage of housing and high housing costs. According to a recent presentation by Town Manager Adam Chapdelaine, Boston and the immediate surrounding communities added new 148,000 jobs and 110,000 new residents in the period 2010–2017. But despite the increase in jobs and population, we’ve only permitted 32,500 new homes.
This shortage led the Metro Mayors Coalition — a group of 15 mayors and town managers in the Greater Boston area — to establish a housing task force. The task force set a goal of producing 185,000 new homes during the period 2015–2030. There’s a lot said about that number, and the commitments each community has been willing to make. 185,000 new homes is the big ask, but there’s more to the MMC’s efforts than a simple production goal.
The MMC established a set of ten guiding principles, which are as follows:
- Stakeholder and Municipal Engagement. We must engage in broad, inclusive outreach to municipal officials, residents, and other stakeholders within and beyond the MMC to understand and address regional housing concerns.
- Housing Production. We strive to increase the production of housing throughout Metro Boston so that we can provide homes for all types of households and income levels. This should include both rental and homeownership opportunities, consistent with regional need, and designed in ways that respect the neighborhoods in which they are located.
- Housing Preservation. We support the preservation of existing affordable housing choices. This includes protecting affordable apartments at risk of expiring subsidies or deed restrictions; preserving “naturally occurring” affordable housing; repairing older homes in need of maintenance and minimizing tear-downs; and preserving smaller homes.
- Housing Affordability. We welcome and will invest in the development of housing that is affordable to low-, moderate-, and middle-income households.
- Housing Stability. We will work to address extreme cost burdens, minimize the risk of displacement, reduce evictions, eliminate unfair rental practices, create permanent housing for homeless residents, and ensure safe and stable housing throughout Metro Boston.
- Fair Housing. We are committed to addressing discrimination against tenants and buyers, and advancing fair and equitable access to housing opportunity for everyone.
- Housing Diversity. We promote the development and preservation of diverse types of rental and homeownership housing at a range of scales and a unit mix inclusive of multiple bedrooms.
- Housing Design. We support universal design in housing to create accessible and barrier-free homes through the incorporation of features that are commonly available and easily usable by people of virtually all ages and abilities.
- Housing Location. We encourage residential and mixed-use development in transit-accessible and/or walkable areas where people can get around locally and make connections throughout the region without relying on private auto. We also support creation of more such neighborhoods through expansion of public transit and retrofits of select former industrial sites.
- Complete Neighborhoods. Our commitment to greater housing opportunity is part of a holistic approach to community building that includes a mix of land uses and access to open space. Our residents want to live in areas that offer a range of activity throughout the day and evening.
In addition to the guiding principals, the Task Force’s web site lists dozens of strategies for consideration. Some focus on the three cost drivers of housing production: land, labor, and materials. Others focus on more holistic aspects, like fairness and diversity. The overall list of strategies includes: tenant protections like rent control, requirements for just-cause evictions, and the right of first refusal; community benefit agreements, housing cooperatives, and community land trusts; transfer fees, linkage fees, vacancy taxes, and anti-speculation taxes; use of prefabricated homes and modular construction techniques; and a variety of approaches for community engagement and education.
In summary, the MMC has put a lot of thought into the process — far more than simply coming up with a number.
Jennifer Susse authored this letter on January 20, 2020. Ms. Susse is a member of the Arlington School Committee and a Town Meeting Member. She closely follows the costs and demographic trends of school enrollment and of Town finances.
I write in support of efforts to increase housing in Arlington, both as a resident and as a member of the School Committee. I support these efforts not in spite of their potential effects on our schools, but because of their potential effects on both schools and town.
I have often spoken to the community about our rapid enrollment growth — over 2,000 students added in the last 25 years, 60 percent of those in the last 10 years. Because of these large enrollment increases the Arlington Public Schools have had to add capacity, which the town has generously supported. So how can I be in favor of adding more housing to Arlington, and thus potentially adding even more students to our already stressed school facilities?
Losing diversity
I will get to the capacity issue in a bit, but first I want to point out that in the last 30 years Arlington has lost both economic and generational diversity. The story about the loss of economic diversity is well known; the loss of generational diversity less so.
Between 1990 and 2010, the percentage of residents between 20 and 34 dropped from 28 percent to 17 percent. During that same period, the population over 65 dropped from 18 percent to 16 percent. What replaced these demographic groups were primarily residents between the ages of 35 and 54 and 0 and 14. In other words, mostly families with school-aged children. The loss of both types of diversity weakens the fabric of our community. However, the loss of generational diversity also weakens the town’s finances.
The average cost to the town of an additional student is about $8,500, a number that includes what’s known as the Enrollment Growth Factor (the amount that the town gives to the schools for each additional student in the system, currently at 50 percent of the per pupil cost of the preceding year, or $7,297), as well as the average cost of the benefits that the town pays for new hires.
What this means is that during the time a household has children in the school system, it is likely receiving more in benefits than it pays in taxes. For the town’s finances to work, we also need people who do not have children to live and pay taxes in Arlington, including young adults and older adults for whom Arlington is becoming less affordable because of condo conversions, teardowns, etc.
Overcrowded classrooms
But what about our overcrowded classrooms? The answer is that given the type of housing likely to be created on the main corridors, and the timing of that housing construction, I am not worried about further stresses to our school facilities.
By the time new housing is built, our elementary-aged population will likely be in modest decline. Five to 10 years out we expect to see enrollment stabilize at the middle and high school levels as well. That does not mean that we will have tons of extra space; just that we will no longer be in danger of taking over art, music, and literacy rooms for general classroom use.
Enrollment projections made by Dr. Jerome McKibbin in 2015 have so far been fairly accurate. His revised projections show that, without additional housing, we are expected to have 350 fewer elementary-aged students in the Arlington Public Schools 12 years from now than we have today.
The discussion about housing in Arlington reminds me of the discussion a few years ago over the Affordable Care Act. At that time, there was a lot of anxiety about potential changes to the health-care system, but insufficient appreciation (in my opinion) of the then current trends.
Zoning changes
Any discussion of zoning changes in Arlington must take an honest look at where we are now, and the direction we are headed in if there were no zoning changes. Our current trends have us losing natural affordability and economic and demographic diversity because of teardowns, condo conversions and sharp price increases. We don’t have the option to freeze Arlington as we know it today (or 10 years ago) in place.
In closing, I would like to say that I am proud of our excellent schools and strongly believe that families who have recently moved to Arlington have strengthened our community, but I do not want Arlington to become a place where people move in with toddlers and move out soon as their children graduate from high school. The current trends have us losing both economic and generational diversity, which threatens not only our community and civic life, but our financial health as well. Adding more and diverse housing can help.